পারভেজ সেলিম ।।
অনেকেই আশংকা করছে বাংলাদেশের অবস্থা শ্রীলংকার মতো হবে। কেউ কেউ আবার আত্নবিশ্বাসী, না তেমন কিছুই হবে না।
আয়তনে বাংলাদেশের অর্ধেকের চেয়ে ছোট শ্রীলংকা। জনসংখ্যা ২ কোটি ২০ লাখ। বাংলাদেশে জনসংখ্যা তাদের চেয়ে নয় গুন বেশি। জিডিপির আকারেও বিশাল ব্যবধান দুই দেশের মধ্যে। শ্রীলংকার চেয়ে চারগুনের বেশি বাংলাদেশের মোট দেশজ উৎপাদন। শ্রীলংকার জিডিপি নিম্নমুখি হলেও বাংলাদেশের উর্ধ্বমুখি।
বাংলাদেশের বৈদেশিক ঋণের পরিমান প্রায় এক লাখ কোটি টাকা। আর সরকারের মোট ঋণ ১২ লাখ ৭৩ হাজার কোটি টাকা। যা মোট জিডিপির তা ৪২.০৫ শতাংশ। সেখানে শ্রীলংকার ঋণ জিডিপির ১১৯ শতাংশ।
রপ্তানীর চেয়ে আমদানী বাড়ছে বেশি তাই রিজার্ভের উপর চাপ বাড়ছে এদেশের। সর্বশেষ বছরে আমদানি ব্যয় বেড়েছে ৫৪ শতাংশ হারে। এভাবে চলতে থাকলে এক বছরের মধ্যে বাংলাদেশের রিজার্ভ শুণ্য হয় যাবে।
বাংলাদেশের দশটি মেগা প্রকল্পের ভাগ্যে কি হচ্ছে তা খুবই গুরুত্বপুর্ন। মেগা প্রকল্প গুলো সঠিক সময় একটিও শেষ করতে পারেনি সরকার। শেষ হবার পর প্রকল্পগুলো কতটা কার্যকরি হবে সেটাই নির্ধারণ করবে বাংলাদেশের ভবিষ্যৎ। শ্রীলংকার মেগাপ্রকল্প গুলোর নির্মাণ শেষ হবার এক দশক পর সেগুলোর অপ্রয়োজনীয়তা ভয়াবহ রুপ নেয়। বাংলাদেশের মেগা প্রকল্পগুলো শেষ হওয়া পর্যন্ত অপেক্ষা করতে হবে।
সব হিসেব নিকেশ করলে, মধ্য মেয়াদে মানে আগামী ৪/৫ বছরে বাংলাদেশের সংকট খুব একটা দেখা যাচ্ছে না। তবে ‘দীর্ঘ মেয়াদে কি হবে সেটা আমরা কেউ জানিনা’। যে অর্থনীতিবিদরা এমন মত দিচ্ছেন আমার মতও তাদের পক্ষে।
(চলবে..)
পারভেজ সেলিম ।।
লেখক, সাংবাদিক ও চলচ্চিত্রকর্মী
লেখক, সাংবাদিক এবং চলচ্চিত্রকর্মী ।
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